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Bumped: Assume (1) Florida ends up basically tied and (2) Rudy quits. What next?

Update: I bumped up this post in light of Jim Geraghty’s report that:

Following up on this speculation by Bill Bennett, Time’s Mark Halperin reports: Giuliani expected to endorse McCain, as early as Wednesday — in Los Angeles or Simi Valley.

The original post follows:

In Florida, the current RCP poll average has McCain at 29.9, Romney at 29.1, Giuliani at 15.4, Huckabee at 12.8, and Paul at 3.9. Assume McCain and Romney essentially end up in a statistcal dead heat in Florida. Also assume Rudy drops out after Florida. Who benefits? The most reasonable assumption, IMHO, is that most Giuliani voters will go to McCain.

According to the RCP averages, McCain is ahead of Romney in California by almost 9 points. Giuliani’s polling at about 11%. The results will be skewed by early mail voting, but if Rudy drops out. McCain will be in a good position to pick up most of the California delegation. In New York, RCP has McCain ahead of Giuliani by 31.7 to 22.5, with Romney trailing badly at 13.7. Again, a Rudy withdrawal seems most likely to further solidify McCain’s advantage in that winner take all state. It’s McCain versus Giuliani in New Jersey with Romney way back, so that’s another big February 5th state where a Rudy withdrawal helps McCain. Ditto Illinois, where McCain holds “a commanding lead over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney.” In states like Georgia and Missouri, the latest polls I’ve seen have Huckabee doing well, although that may shift he finishes a distant 4th in Florida and continues to have money trouble. All of which suggests that February 5th may be a very strong night for McCain.

Three wild cards, however. First, money. Unlike Romney, McCain can’t just write a personal check to buy enough TV time to be competitive. A strong Florida showing, following the South Carolina win, however, might loosen some GOP donor purse strings. Plus, of course, being a darling of the media will ensure that McCain gets a lot of free press.

Second, momentum. Suppose Florida breaks for Romney at the last minute, giving him a clear win (say >3 points). Does that give him enough momentum going into 2/5 to win enough states to beat McCain decisively?

Third, Huckabee. What happens if both Rudy and the Huck drop out after Florida? Will the evangelicals and social conservatives in Huck’s camp go to Romney? Or were they in Huck’s camp in the first place because of Mitt’s religion? And, if so, would they vote for a maverick (or stay home) instead of voting for a Mormon? It would be nice to think that, as a society, we’ve gotten past the point at which we vote for or against someone solely on the basis of their race, gender, or religion. Yet, as illustrated today on the other side of the aisle by the NY NOW’s reaction to Ted Kennedy’s endorsement of Barack Obama, there are way too many people in the country whose decision still rests in indentity politics.

Anyway, if I were a betting man, inclined to violate our great country’s wonderful laws on internet gaming, if Rudy drops out and Huck stays in, I’d be inclined to put money on McCain to win the GOP nod.

Update: More from Geraghty:

We’ve had three major McCain-Romney showdowns - New Hampshire, Michigan, and now Florida. McCain won in New Hampshire, but hey, he won there in 2000, it was home turf for him. Romney won Michigan, but hey, it was a state where his dad is fondly remembered. Now, on pretty much neutral turf, with a diverse set of key demographics, with a lot of voters, a lot of population centers, a lot of driving issues… McCain comes out on top.

And Romney had an 8-to-1 advantage in television advertising.

If the story of Giuliani is endorsing McCain is true, you figure New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut slip into the McCain pile next Tuesday.

Romney’s chances aren’t dead, but his path ahead is rocky and difficult.

I’ll buy that.