Marriage: The Sky’s Been Falling a While

In researching an earlier post, I came across a fascinating article from the August 1947 (!) issue of the Atlantic, which may shine an interesting light on the recent California Supreme Court case on same-sex marriage:

… since divorce is an omnipresent fact in our national life, with its rate constantly increasing, American marriage, on the evidence, is a monumental failure. How did this come to be? ...

It may be that in this era of revaluation of values, we are slowly abandoning our ancient concepts of marriage and the family as we move toward new forms whose shapes are still inchoate. ...

If we abandon monogamous marriage, it follows that we must also abandon our old concepts of the family and the relationship of parents to children.

It is too early to say precisely in what direction we are heading, but it is evident from the statistics of divorce that we are not heading in the direction of re-establishing monogamous marriage and the family in their once almost impregnable position. Marriage, as we know it, is an institution of relatively recent origin. Monogamous marriage is largely a product of the Western world. Cultures as great as ours, or greater, have long endured under other forms of marriage. And it may be that Americans, subconsciously believing that marriage and the family, as they have anciently existed, no longer suit their needs, are slowly changing them for other forms.

In 1947, it seems, some social critics told our parents that divorce and out of wedlock sex were killing marriage. In 2008, some social critics are telling us gay marriage is going to kill the institution of marriage. Yet, somehow marriage just keeps muddling along.

Posted on Tuesday, May 20 2008 | Permalink

Yep professor.  Marriage is just fine.  What with a 50% divorce rate, we can declare that innovations like no-fault divorce are rip roaring successes!  And sure, illegitimacy rates have gone up, but you always have to break a few eggs in making an omelet.

I’m a family law attorney.  I see every day the effects of dying marriages - or the decision to simply not marry - and the effects it has on those who the family unit is supposed to protect: the children.  Not so pretty.

I’m sure in the ivory tower it’s all very interesting and liberating.  In the trenches, not so much.

Posted by unhyphendatedconservative  on  05/20  at  01:34 AM

"What with a 50% divorce rate, we can declare that innovations like no-fault divorce are rip roaring successes!”

Do you really want to go back to the days before no-fault divorce, when people had to hire private detectives to dig up dirt on their spouse then put it on display in a courtroom in order to get a divorce?  Is there any public support at all for getting rid of no-fault divorce?

Posted by  on  05/20  at  03:53 AM

The 50% divorce rate is constantly touted as a fact.  It is not true.  Divorce rates are lower than that, and have dropped from their highs in the 80s.  http://michaelmedved.townhall.com/blog/g/06c1a612-bbc0-4ec1-8f33-3e0fc3960678&trackbacks=true#commentAnchor Medved claims 70% of first marriages will remain married till one spouse dies.  I suspect it is actually a number between 30 and 50%. 

Yep, marriage will keep on rolling along.  Both the sublime and the bizzare.  From life partners to Vegas quickies. If gays want to get in on the fun, why not.

Posted by  on  05/20  at  10:23 AM

Do you really want to go back to the days before no-fault divorce, when people had to hire private detectives to dig up dirt on their spouse then put it on display in a courtroom in order to get a divorce?

It doesn’t have to look precisely like the old statutes.  People should have to show some effort at reconciliation before a judge says “yep, looks like you need a do-over.”

For all the talk, study after study has shown that “staying together for the children” is actually a good thing for the children ( http://ornery.org/essays/warwatch/2005-11-13-1.html ).  A speed bump that encourages people to try again isn’t all bad.

Posted by  on  05/20  at  12:00 PM

Joe: It is close to 50% if you look at the right time frame (15 years or more).  Here’s some reliable data:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/02news/div_mar_cohab.htm

Posted by  on  05/21  at  05:05 AM

Steve, I assume you are relying on this quote from the report you cited: 

“Among the findings in the report: unmarried cohabitations overall are less stable than marriages.  The probability of a first marriage ending in separation or divorce within 5 years is 20 percent, but the probability of a premarital cohabitation breaking up within 5 years is 49 percent.  After 10 years, the probability of a first marriage ending is 33 percent, compared with 62 percent for cohabitations.”

I do not believe you can simply interpolate those statistics and come up with a roughly 50% divorce rate over 15 years.  Medved claims it is approxiately 30%.  That seems a bit low, just like 50% seems a little high.  Just from my very unscientific survey of other kids in my kids’ classrooms and from people I know (and not just from one region of the country), I think the rate is probably somewhere roughly between 30 and 50%. 

What is amazing is there is really no accurate data on this.  You would think it would be easy enough to confirm.

Posted by  on  05/21  at  12:54 PM
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