The Prospects for a Brokered Democratic Convention: Bumped

Dave Schuler:

The Democratic Party has institutionalized brokered conventions by the use of the superdelegates. Even conventions that are nominally decided by the end of the primary season are de facto brokered by those 796 superdelegates.

As I understand the Democratic Party’s rules the superdelegates can be pledged to a candidate but are not bound to that candidate, so they can all shift sides at the convention. So Schuler’s right to that extent.

Yet, I think it’s even more complicated than that. As I understand the GOP rules, convention delegates are bound to vote for their candidate on at least the first ballot unless released by the candidate. As I understand the Democratic Pary rules, however, none of the DNC delegates are bound to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged, even on the first ballot. The Convention delegate call states that:

Delegates may vote for the candidate of their choice whether or not the name of such candidate was placed in nomination.

The delegate selection rules further state that:

No delegate at any level of the delegate selection process shall be mandated by law or Party rule to vote contrary to that person’s presidential choice as expressed at the time the delegate is elected.

So they’re not bound to vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged. In the rules, only an appeal to conscience appears to constrain the delegates:

Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.

(Why bother even having primaries if that’s going to be the rule? But that’s a question for another day.)

The DNC’s rules thus would seem to contemplate that a determined second place finisher could argue right up until the vote that delegates pledged to other candidates, including candidates whose names have been placed in nomination, should “in all good conscience” switch sides. Right? Or am I missing something?

Say Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are the only candidates whose names are placed in nomination. Assume Hillary has exactly the 2025 required going in and Obama has 1950, with the rest undeclared. If Obama were determined to make a fight of it, couldn’t he try to persuade some of Hillary’s pledged delegates to switch sides? In which case, Hillary presumably will wage a floor fight over the credentials of the Florida and Michigan delegations. At which point, Obama tries to strip away more Hillary delegaes by arguing that it’s unfair to change the rules in the middle of the stream.

In sum, when it’s close, the rules of the Democratic party almost seem to have been designed to make it interesting.

Update: Rick Hasen notes a wrinkle:

Indeed, even elected delegates to the convention are allowed to change their minds as to which candidate to support, which is why the Democratic Party rules give the candidates the right to replace those delegates at the convention if they might be unreliable.

Update: Ed Morrissey asks:

What happens if Obama comes to the convention—and Hillary beats him with the superdelegates?

Ed’s answer:

It could create a huge firestorm in Denver that could consume the party’s oxygen for the next several years. The African-American vote would see this as a stolen nomination and could walk away from the Democrats. Rank-and-file voters, especially those who supported Obama’s call for change in politics, would likely see this as smoke-filled-room maneuvering—which is exactly what it would be. The bitterness would extend to the House and Senate members of the superdelegate assembly who backed Clinton over Obama, and it could threaten the Democrats’ down-ticket races as well as their presidential election chances.

Posted on Tuesday, February 05 2008 | Permalink

"If Obama were determined to make a fight of it, couldn’t he try to persuade some of Hillary’s pledged delegates to switch sides?”

That’s exactly what almost happened in 1984—Jesse Jackson tried to convince some of Walter Mondale’s black and Hispanic delegates to support his campaign at the convention, which would have pushed the nomination to a second ballot. Didn’t work, although that was the last convention where the nomination was even slightly in doubt.

Still, considering that the Democratic nomination this time has been like a CGI-enhanced sequel to 1984, a retread is always impossible.

Posted by  on  02/05  at  02:36 AM

"No delegate at any level of the delegate selection process shall be mandated by law or Party rule to vote contrary to that person’s presidential choice as expressed at the time the delegate is elected.”

“Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

I don’t know where to find a copy of the rules, but I look at this and I see something different. At district conventions, supporters of the various candidates for president caucus separately, and all attendees (as well as those seeking to be delegates) sign a pledge that they support the candidate whose caucus they plan to join. These pledged caucuses then elect the pledged delegates.

So the first quote seems to me to say “nobody can be forced to vote for a candidate they didn’t support at their district convention, even if that candidate isn’t officially placed into nomination. (In 2004, a number of pledged Dean and Kucinich delegates voted for Dean and Kucinich, even after Dean had officially dropped out.)

Given that, I think you need more evidence to back up your assertion that the “good conscience” quote releases delegates from their pledges as long as their candidate remains on the ballot at the convention. It sounds more to me that delegates pledged to candidates no longer in contention are expected to vote as they imagine their district caucus would want them to vote.

Posted by  on  02/06  at  02:55 PM

I think you’re missing a negative there.  You quoted the delegate selection rules:

“No delegate at any level of the delegate selection process shall be mandated by law or Party rule to vote *contrary* to that person’s presidential choice as expressed at the time the delegate is elected.” (My emphasis.)

Consider, for example, a delegate who pledges on election day to support Obama and is elected to do so.  This excerpt doesn’t say anything about the circumstances under which he’s permitted to vote for someone else; it says only that he shall not be compelled by law or Party rule to vote for anyone else. 

If there were a presumptive nominee going into the convention, this excerpt would forbid the Dems from compelling all the delegates to vote for the presumptive nominee, but I think this excerpt isn’t sufficient to claim that delegates can vote for whomever they like.

Posted by  on  02/06  at  03:08 PM

Having gone on and read the delegate selection rules (thanks for the links - sorry I didn’t see them at first), I think MA04 and I are right about the rule we both quoted - it’s meant to prevent delegates from being compelled to vote for anyone besides their pledged candidate, no matter what.

You and Mr. Hasen seem to have the gist of it right, however. I can’t see anything preventing a pledged delegate from deciding that their conscience requires that they vote for someone other than the person they pledged to support originally.

I think, though, we need to know more about the use of alternates to replace “faithless” delegates. Your link to Mr. Hasen’s article just goes to his assertion - he provides no references beyond a link to this post here.

As a delegate to the 2004 DNC, my understanding was that if I voted for anyone besides my pledged delegate, my vote would be rescinded and one of the alternates would then replace me to vote as I had pledged to do. If that’s the case, then it would be pointless for a delegate to desert a candidate without that candidate’s consent.

I guess the question is, “can candidates replace delegates even after they’ve voted?” Even if I’m not correct, this discussion is pretty academic (though interesting). It would require breaches of faith on a massive scale for the faithless delegates to make a difference at the convention. It’s far more likely that the superdelegates will break for the candidate ahead in the pledged delegate count going into Denver.

Posted by  on  02/06  at  04:47 PM
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