Professor Bainbridge...on law, politics, religion, culture & food

Live Blogging Super Tuesday

9:41 CNN has called all the GOP races except Alaska. All the Democratic races have been called except Alaska, Missouri, and New Mexico. So I’m going to call it a night. Good night for McCain. A bad night for the conservative talking head elite. I don’t see how either Romney or Huckabee can stop McCain at this point. If in fact Missouri tips for Obama, as Fox just called it, the Democratic race will remain interesting for at least a while longer. Clinton’s firewall win in California and her wins in other big blue states, however, suggest she had a pretty good night.

9:38 Also, as of now, CNN has Giuliani winning 10% of California GOP votes. It’s mostly the impact of the early voting by absentee balloting, I assume. It nicely illustrates the problem with a de facto system of voting by mail in which the process can be spread out of weeks.

9:36 At the moment, Romney is 20 points behind and a distant third in Missouri. those are body blows.

9:32 As of right now, here in California, Propositions 91, 92, and 92 - all of which I poosed, FWIW - are losing. The 4 Indian gaming compacts, which I reluctantly supported, are winning. Vote totals with 8% of precincts reporting here. Unfortunately, with 4% of the precincts reporting, the telephone/internet tax increase Proposition S is ahead 2-1.

9:30 Remember 1976, when Ronald Reagan announced his VEEP choice before the convention? On Hugh’s radio show, he and Michael Medved just agreed that it would make sense for McCain to do the same thing. I agree. A good choice defuses the age issue and gets the party started on unifying.

9:27 Andrew Sullivan‘s annoyed with California gays, who went for Clinton 2-1.

9:24 Rove says a worry for the GOP is that there were only 2 states (out of 20-odd) in which the GOP turnout was bigger than the Democratic turnout.

9:23 Rove discounts Obama’s strength in red states, because even with him on the ticket, those states are safe for the GOP. I’m not sure I agree (see below re Romney’s problems in the South), but Karl Rove’s won a few more elections than I have.

9:22 Rove thinks Clinton had a convincing win. She’s down 11 states to 7, but her 7 are the biggest states, so even with proportional allocation, she ends up with a lot more delegates.

9:20 Karl Rove says McCain’s probably won over half the delegates at stake tonight.

9:18 Brit Hume says it has to have been a disappointing night for Romney.

9:18 Geraghty:

Missouri goes McCain. All 58 into his pile. Big night for McCain.

I’ll have to do the math when I’m more awake, but I think he has a massive lead in the delegate count.

9:15 Hugh says he can’t see how McCain can be stopped unless Huckabee and Romney combine. That’ll happen when pigs fly.

9:14 On his radio show, Hugh just noted that California went for McCain and admits McCain had a big night.

9:13 Fox just called California for McCain on the GOP side and Clinton on the Democratic side. Of course, given our proportional system of allocating delegates by congressional district, it’ll be a while before we know what the delegate count is.

9:09 If you believe Paul Begala on CNN, Hillary is winning people who earn below $50K/year, while Obama is winning people who make more than $50K/year. I think it says something good about America that an African-American man is doing so well among whites and the middle and upper classes. It wasn’t so long ago that a black candidate would have been a non-starter in both of those demographics.

9:04 Speaking of the Corner, one of the best (if not the best) of the Cornerites is Jonathan Adler. Apropos my out on the ledge bet below, Adler writes:

Sitting in an airport, watching election returns, I can’t help but wonder whether today’s returns will result in a McCain-Huckabee ticket.  That’s a lever I could not pull in November, and I suspect I’m not alone.

It’d be damned hard to pull that lever, that’s for sure. Apparently, Bill Bennett said something similar on CNN.

9:01 Over at the Corner there is much wailing and gnashing of teeth. Also, some silliness. E.g. John O’Sullivan:

… obviously there is no way that I, the mass of conservatives, or anyone else can hold a presidential candidate to his promise if he decides to renege on it once safely in the White House.

Nonsense. Does the name Harriet Miers not mean anything?

8:51 Obama gives a damn good speech. If giving a good speech were all that counts, he’d win in a major landslide.  (See KG’s comment below. Also, of course, Andrew Sullivan) It makes me wish I were still a liberal, so I could support him, because he’s the only candidate this cycle about whom it seems even remotely plausible to get excited. But you know the old story: If you’re not a liberal when you’re young, you have no heart, but if you’re not a conservative when you get older, you have no mind.

8:43 With 8% of precincts having turned in results, Clinton is ahead 57 to 30, while McCain is ahead of Romney by 44 to 25.

8:41 Apropos my out on the ledge suggestion below, did you notice how nice McCain was to Huckabee?

8:38 I’ve got to disagree with Morrissey that the GOP is heading to a brokered convention scenario. If McCain squeaks out Missouri and wins California by 5+ points, I bet Ann Romney not to waste anymore of the family’s money on a quixotic pursuit.

8:35 Ed Morrissey‘s home from the Minnesota caucus and is live blogging the election night results as a whole. He’s speaking on Hugh Hewitt’s radio show right now. (Go to KRLA and click on listen live in the upper left hand corner).

8:33 CNN says that in winner take all Missouri Huckabee has a narrow lead but the precincts in which the vote is still out are all in areas where McCain is strong.

8:31 I’m going to go out on a ledge and suggest that Huckabee’s strength in the South makes it highly likely he ends up as the VP nominee if McCain wins the Presidential nomination, especially if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

8:28 On Hugh’s show, Congressman John Campbell says that Los Angeles County has more registered Republicans than any other county in the country. Of course, since Los Angeles is the biggest county in the country by way of population (and pretty big in land mass too), we’re still a small minority.

8:21 Obama’s got a Latino problem. California exit polls show Latinos break strongly for Hillary. Not that the immigration hardliners would let the GOP take advantage of that opportunity if Obama is the nominee. OTOH, Obama is doing very well among white voters, as he did in Georgia earlier tonight.

8:19 Finally some California results. With 3% of precincts reporting, my guy Fred Thompson’s got 3,349 = 3.25%. McCain and Clinton are ahead.

8:14 Also on Hugh’s show, Steyn just took Romney voters to task for whining about the McCain-Huckabee deal in West Virginia. Also, he opines that if Romney can’t handle Mike Huckabee, how’s he going to handle Islamofascists?

8:12 On Hugh’s radio show, Mark Steyn just said that Hillary Clinton will be okay on the war on terror because she won’t want the war lost on her watch. I’m reminded of John Birmingham’s Axis of Time trilogy, in which the aircraft carrier USS Hillary Clinton is named in 2021 after “the most uncompromising wartime president in the history of the United States.”

8:10 No results from California at all. I’m eagerly waiting to see how many of my fellow Californians joined me in voted for Fred Thompson despite his withdrawal.

8:07 Fred Barnes says Romney emerges from Super Tuesday much weakened. Meanwhile, Jim Geraghty is advising Romtimists to skip his latest posts.

8:04 My UCLAW colleague Jerry Kang endorsed Obama.

7:55 If you take Hillary seriously, there is no problem that the federal government can’t solve. How do intelligent people believe this crap?

7:51 At 6:32, you’ll recall, Hugh Hewitt was crowing about early exit polls showing that Romney was doing very well in Arizona. As of this hour, CNN is reporting that McCain beat Romney 50 to 31 in Arizona. So much for McCain being finished.

7:43 Tyler Cowen opines:

If you’re not looking at the betting markets…
You should be.  Right here.  C’mon people, turn your TVs off and go crash the InTrade servers, making sure you pay homage to Hayek and Robin Hanson along the way.

Okay, fair enough. As of right now, McCain’s up 2.2 to an astonishing price of 89.2 (which means that inTrade’s bettors think that there’s an 89% chance McCain will be the nominee). Clinton’s up 5.8 to 59.8. Bad news for our friends Hugh and Andrew.

7:41 Fox keeps pulling the rug out from other Romney. No sooner does Mitt finish his speech than Brit Hume comes on and calls Tennessee and Georgia for Huckabee and Arizona for McCain, commenting on how it’s more bad news for Romney.

7:40 Steven Taylor wraps up for the night:

McCain looks set emerge as the clear, if not prohibitive, front-runner, with Romney damaged and the Democratic race will be quite close when all the delegates are tallied.

7:39 Gawd, I find Romney annoying. I just don’t see how we can trust the Romney 2007 in light of Romney 1994.

7:34 No scream, but the we’re going to keep fighting line came perilously close to Dean’s scream. (Okay, well that’s probably a bit exaggerated.)

7:32 Romney’s speech. He looks especially Ken doll-like tonight. Mitt remarks that his sons are on the platform. John McCain’s sons are in Iraq and the Navy Academy. That matters.

7:31 Fox gives North Dakota to Romney. Kristol remarks that you can’t win the nomination by winning 3 out of 16 primaries on Super Tuesday. Fred Barnes questions whether Romney has a path to the nomination.

7:25 Wendell Goler calls Romney’s numerous loss in the South “body blows.” Right. It’ll be one of the key memes in tomorrow’s press reporting.

7:19 Right Coast blogger Maimon Schwarzschild voted for McCain.

7:18 On Fox, Brit Humes just opined that Romney’s not having a good night. Haley Barbour just said the same thing.

7:10 Huckabee’s giving a victory speech. Just mentioned the Fair Tax. Factcheck.org has taken apart the Fair Tax pretty persuasively. See also Tim Worstall‘s critique.

7:09: Jeralyn is live blogging from her precinct’s Colorado Democratic caucus.

7:01: On Fox, Bill Kristol says Romney’s third place finishes in the Southern states is devastating for Romney. Yep. Scroll down for more. He further opines that you can;t call yourself the conservative choice if you can;t win the most conservative states.

6:59: People keep saying “A vote for Huckabee is a vote for McCain.” But I’ve seen polling data from Pew suggesting that McCain is the overwhelming (2-1) second choice of Huckabee voters.

6:53 PM: Ed Morrissey is live blogging the Minnesota caucus. Romney won Ed’s precinct pretty handily.

6:46 PM: All those Kennedys behind Obama, and Massachusetts gets called for Clinton. It couldn’t happen to a nicer family.

6:40 PM: Steven Taylor‘s take on the night so far:

Given that the ultimate issue after tonight is whether or not Romney has a real chance of overtaking McCain going forward, the Huckabee wins are almost as damaging to Romney as are the McCain victories. Since it is highly unlikely that Huckabee will emerge from tonight as a serious contender for the nomination (a few regional wins will not achieve that feat), Huckabee wins don’t really harm McCain. However every single loss for Romney is one more nail in his electoral coffin.

6:36 PM: Scroll down to the link to Ross Douthat’s post. There’s a very good chance that the media meme tomorrow will “Huck, the comeback kid.” That’s very bad news for Romney, who needed to have the comeback kid mantle tomorrow.

6:34 PM: CNN graphics show Romney winning few counties in Southern states. This is key, especially in states where the delegates are divided up in some form of proportionality on a county or congressional district basis. Also, scroll down to the quetsion I asked earlier: If Romney’s doing this badly in the South, how does he hold it for the GOP in November, especially against Obama?

6:32 PM: Home. On the way home, heard Hugh say McCain can’t recover if he loses Arizona. It’s up on his blog now. Maybe. Losing Arizona would be a big blow. Decisive? I doubt it. McCain will still come out of tonight with a lot of delegates. On the other side of the aisle, while driving home I passed three intersections on Sunset Blvd where Obama supporters were standing on the corners waving Obama signs. None of those corners are anywhere near a polling station. So Obama supporters went out on a cold (well, by our standards) night to stand on the street and try to drum up votes. I’ve never seen that in 10 years in Los Angeles. There’s something very important happening in American and its name is Obama.

5:07 PM: Time for a commuting break. Back soon.

5:05 PM: In a roundup of the latest exit polls, Jim Geraghty reports that McCain and Romney are tied in Arizona. Wow. He goes on to note, however, that “The South just won’t warm up to Romney, will it?” I think this is huge. Given that the GOP can’t win without a nearly clean sweep of the South, a Romney nomination will require some considerable work in Dixie. If Romney has to play defense in the Fall just to bring the South into line, he’ll have real problems beating Hillary. And if it’s Obama versus Romney, the latter’s weakness in the South could result in a landslide of tsunami proporitions (to mix metaphors).

5:02 PM: Catholic law professor Rob Vischer is heading off to the Minnesota Democratic caucus and is having second thoughts about Obama:

… my attraction to the candidacy of Barack Obama has encountered a couple of stumbling blocks.  First is the fact that George Clooney and a slew of Hollywood types have seen fit to endorse him, which must give one pause.  Second, more seriously, Obama was outspoken in opposing the Born Alive Infant Protection Act in the Illinois Senate, which is probably old news for many MoJers.  The same measure passed the United States Senate by a vote of 98-0.  Not a promising vehicle for pro-life progressivism, to say the least.

Of course, it’s not like Hillary offers “a promising vehicle for pro-life progressivism” either.

4:58 PM: If I heard correctly, some caller on Hugh’s show just said John McCain is almost as liberal as Hillary Clinton. Sheesh.

4:56: John McCain reportedly will opt out of public financing so as to avoid the rules on primary season spending imposed by such laws as McCain-Feingold. Pretty brazen even for someone whose career has been marked by brazenry (is that a word; I guess I should have said brazenness)?

4:50: On Hewitt’s show, Lileks seemed to be pushing the Romney as comeback kid meme. Sorry. Don’t buy it. Scroll down to the link to Ross Douthat.

4:48 PM: Economists Richard Thaler and Susan Woodward call Hillary Clinton’s plan to fix the subprime mortgage mess “disastrous.”

Senator Clinton’s policy amounts to a command-and-control approach to economic policy in which the government announces prices and tells suppliers what to produce. Undertaking such an intervention can only raise interest rates on mortgages (and maybe other interest rates as well) as markets attempt to incorporate risk premiums to cope with possible future interventions. Promising the American people that you can fix things by just lowering their interest rates is dishonest, a fairy tale that won’t come true.

4:19 PM: Hugh’s plugging his cruise. I’ll throw him a link. The cruise is on the Seven Seas Navigator. I wonder if Hugh knows that the Navigator started life as a Soviet spy ship?

4:18 PM: Victor Davis Hanson has a must read column on the anti-McCain animus.

4:13 PM: On Hugh Hewitt’s show, he and Dean Barnett are painting the early numbers as a Romney comeback. For example, Dean just said Romney’s only losing New York by 11 instead of the 30+ margin the last polls had for McCain. Which calls to mind Ross Douthat‘s comment:

Romney is probably already toast, no matter what happens today. In the absolute best-case scenario for his campaign, he’ll win California going away and several other close states (Missouri, Georgia, etc) into the bargain. Given the state of the race just a week ago, this would be a remarkable turnaround. But for Romney to have any hope of pulling the inside straight he needs to win the nomination, he’ll need the press to report it that way, to cast him as the “comeback kid” even though McCain will still have won more states and delegates, both today and overall. And the media, as you may have noticed from time to time in this election cycle, likes McCain an awful lot more than it likes Romney. Which means that if there’s a spin war to be won tomorrow, don’t put your money on Mitt.

4:11 PM: Drudge‘s numbers suggest a stunning victory shaping up for Obama:

OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37… Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45… Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45… Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42… Georgia: Obama 75, Clinton 26… Illinois: Obama 70, Clinton 30… Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48… Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46… New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47…

CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26… California: Clinton 50, Obama 47… New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43… Oklahoma: Clinton 61, Obama 31… Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41…

2:55 PM: Off to next class. But while I’m gone, take a look at Rick Hasen’s fascinating analysis of the law governing primaries, caucuses, and delegate selection.

2:33 PM: Chris Bowers on the Democrats’ race:

… in order to win the nomination without the aid of super delegates, in her best-case scenario after Super Tuesday, Clinton would need to win 76.2% of all remaining pledged delegates. Given our proportional delegate system, there is simply no way that is going to happen unless Obama drops out.

(HT: Ruffini) As noted earlier in this space, the Democrats’ rules on delegates being pledged but not bound would seem to mean the fight could go on for quite a while.

1:42 PM: A quote from Beth Myers of the Romney campaign: “Governor Romney’s campaign of conservative change.” “Conservative change”? Shouldn’t that be an oxymoron?

1:36 PM: Back from class. See that Hugh Hewitt links a story claiming that 40% of California votes cast by absentee ballot. Time to ‘fess up: We have a de facto vote by mail system. Why not make it a real mail voting system with appropriate safeguards? Here’s an entire book on the subject.

11:56 AM: Ready to go teach Section 16. But one last quote, this time from Phil Carter:

He may have never read a Zogby Poll or Field Poll.
He has been deployed for most of this primary season.
His family cares more about his homecoming than the ’08 election.
Thanks to AFN, he has not seen a single campaign ad.
When he hears “chad,” he thinks of the next country he might be deployed.
He’s done more electioneering in Iraq than in America.
For him and his squad, precinct walking is a combat operation.

He is an American soldier, serving in harm’s way. And today, he is depending on you, the voter, to nominate a candidate who you believe can lead America’s sons and daughters in uniform.

11:13 AM: Stephen Green is liveblogging all day too.

11:00 AM: Just noticed that Daniel Drezner voted for McCain.

10:55 AM: James Joyner‘s predictions:

Barring some major surprises, John McCain will end the night as the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. Mitt Romney has closed the gap in California to make the biggest prize of the day a toss-up. It’s unlikely to be enough, however. ...

A week ago, it looked like Hillary Clinton was set to run the table. She had a huge lead in California and New York, the two biggest prizes. Barack Obama has had an amazing surge, though, including some big time endorsements. I’m much less confident than I was just a few days ago that she’ll win the nomination. That said, she should have a very good day.

10:50 AM: Trolling the blogosphere, I spot Steven Taylor’s always funny and insightful Toast-o-Meter’s pre-Super Tuesday edition.

10:42 AM: Andrew Sullivan says that the parties rules on delegates reflect “the core traits of the parties: stupidly fair and aggressively macho.” For my take on the selection rules, go here.

8:35 AM: Arrive at polling place. Learn I am the first person to request a Republican ballot at my precinct. Boy, it’s a lonely life being a conservative in LaLa land. Consider that California awards many delegates by who wins each Congressional District. Very few GOPers in my CD. Tempted to vote for somebody who could win, but stand firm and stick to plan.