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Dissecting the Polls

Donald Lambri dissects the recent Presidential polls in the Washington Times:

Voter surveys showing Democratic presidential front-runner John Kerry defeating President Bush are premature, at best, and do not reflect the president's relatively stable job-approval rating, polling analysts say. Other factors behind the numbers, meanwhile, suggest the president may not be in as much political trouble as his opponents believe.

A USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll reported Wednesday that public support for Mr. Kerry had soared, putting him 12 points ahead of the president in a head-to-head matchup among likely voters — 55 percent to 43 percent. But the poll's footnotes suggest the Massachusetts senator's spurt in the polls may have more to do with the sharp increase in the number of Democrats who described themselves as 'likely voters' than with any change in the way voters perceive the president's job performance....

The big rise in the Democratic voter numbers was an "unusual situation" because "Republicans are disproportionately likely to be 'likely voters' in most situations, which has historically given them an advantage on Election Day," the polling firm said....

Other pollsters said that a spike in the Democratic vote in the early months of an election year after a string of hard-fought, media-promoted primaries was nothing new. In May 1984, for example, after a tough Democratic primary battle, polls showed Democrat Walter Mondale locked in a 49 percent to 49 percent dead heat against President Reagan. Mr. Reagan won that year in a 49-state landslide.

Note to self: Let's skip the doom and gloom, shall we? We're still in good shape for November.