Would Huckabee Bridge the Enthusiasm Gap?

We all know about the enthusiasm gap between Barack Obama and John McCain. One hypothesis is that this means McCain will be much more limited in his choice of a VP nominee than Obama. McCain will have to go for a choice that solidifies the base.

Romney and Huckabee are the obvious choices, but I think the former would raise too many of his own enthusiasm questions. Sean at 538.com thinks it’s Huckabee:

Evangelical Christians remain the organizing engine of the Republican Party, and they typically don’t get the credit they deserve for winning the race for Bush in 2004 (usually pundits like to frame the outcome as “John Kerry lost,” despite unprecedented Democratic turnout). McCain’s current level of milquetoast support from that group is a major obstacle to him winning in an environment where Democrats are both more numerous and significantly harder in their support for Obama.

It’s awareness that these evangelicals are still the pumping heart of the Republican organizing infrastructure that motivates my belief McCain ought to seriously consider Mike Huckabee as his VP. (Nate has offered Republican VP speculation here.) Huckabee may have a few gaffes here and there, and he may be wildly out of the American mainstream for some of his views once those views reach sunlight, but I simply don’t think those views are going to capture enough voter attention nor be meaningfully damaging enough (as merely the VP) to outweigh the benefits Huckabee would bring the ticket. If McCain isn’t able to get any oxygen in the narrative (good or bad), how much scrutiny will his VP choice really get? Would a perceived base pander pick truly hurt McCain with the undecideds in a way that has any staying power?

Importantly, Huckabee has the virtue of coming across as empathetic. No matter how ungenerous his policies might actually be if and when implemented, he has a way of leaving the impression on viewers of a man who cares. He passes the likability test.

As for political skill, Huckabee seems to understand deference to the top of the ticket. He was far and away the most telegenic communicator among the Republican hopefuls during the primary (and certainly hands down the best on Nate’s list), and it’s certainly the simplest and most direct way for McCain to lock down the support and enthusiasm of that desperately-needed evangelical organizing engine. McCain’s age would probably inspire the evangelicals to view Huckabee’s heir apparent spot in line as an object in the mirror closer than it may appear. As base Republican enthusiasm for McCain would rise, the deliberate Obama effort to encroach on evangelical voter territory that has long been Republican by acclaim may find frustration.

Posted on Wednesday, July 16 2008 | Permalink

It would put the nail in the coffin of my (potiential) McCain vote.  The final straw.  I would be looking for a 3rd Party candidate at that point.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  04:50 PM

How can good Christians be enthused by John McCain, who, after all, accepted bribes and tried to influence a federal investigation?

McCain is an unindicted bribe-taker. Good Christians don’t associate with such people. They shun them.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  04:56 PM

Which Bible are you reading, notenthused?  In my Bible Jesus broke bread with tax collectors and prostitutes.  “Let he who is without sin cast the first stone,” I believe He said.

Can’t remember the part about shunning people.  Maybe you could refresh my recollection?

Posted by  on  07/16  at  05:00 PM

notenthused - McCain was cleared of any wrongdoing after a senate investigation.  Nothing personal, but you’re lying.  Good Christians understand that sometimes people commit sins, but it does baffle them sometimes when it’s so shameless.  Bad Christians wonder about that too.

As for Huckabee - McCain is a hold-my-nose candidate.  He puts Huckabee on the ticket, and he instantly becomes a “stay at home and watch the TIVO’ed Monday Night Football game” candidate.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  05:02 PM

If McCain is trying to shore up his support with the conservative base of the republican party picking a populist/statist like Huckabee is probably a mistake.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  05:11 PM

I tend to agree with lily. like a lot of people, I am currently in the “vote McCain, the least obnoxious Dem running” camp.
to be fair, I didn’t watch Gov Huckabee during the debates. perhaps I would be more flexible after actually listening to him...and, frankly, I might be more receptive after continuing to watch Sen Obama and his eventual VP pick.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  05:13 PM

"Would a perceived base pander pick truly hurt McCain with the undecideds in a way that has any staying power?  Importantly, Huckabee has the virtue of coming across as empathetic. No matter how ungenerous his policies might actually be if and when implemented, he has a way of leaving the impression on viewers of a man who cares.”

Let’s translate that:

“He might have genuine religious beliefs like most of the nuts in residents of flyover country, sure.  But at least he rhetorically denounces elementary free market principles.  Even if he’s unlikely to actually be sufficiently left-wing in actual economic policies, he at least can sound like a good ‘Third Way’ socialist.”

Posted by  on  07/16  at  05:20 PM

Huckabee would result in my not voting for president.  I can hold my nose and barely tolerate McCain, but adding Huckabee to the ticket is more than I can stand.  I don’t want a bible-thumping populist who wants to change the Constitution to reflect God’s law--as he sees it--anywhere close to the presidency.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  05:37 PM

I’m an Evangelical Christian and I would NOT vote for Huckabee. Bush’s “Faith Based Initiatives” got the government into too many charities as it is. We don’t need any more moralists telling us what to do. The leftists are bad enough.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  05:42 PM

Adding Huckabee to the GOP ticket will only solidify my vote for Bob Barr.  A social crusader is exactly what the GOP doesn’t need right now.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  05:52 PM

No thank you. No Gov. Fudrucker on the GOP ticket. Let Forrest Gump go back to Arkansas, where he can play the Rev. Huey Long all he wants. Since they have term limits in Arkansas, he can run again as Gomer Pyle. And he can take Walker, the Fake Texas Ranger with him.

Posted by Roderick Reilly  on  07/16  at  05:56 PM

The thought of Huckabee being 1 bullet away from the President would be enough for me to pay for extra security for McCain, if he was elected.

It would also motivate me to vote Obama the second the nomination is made.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  06:38 PM

A McCain/Huck ticket absolutely makes me retch. . . and I am GOP county chairman where I live!  If this happens, expect to see the rise of GOP PUMAs.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  06:45 PM

Huckabee?  I’m ordinarily a reliable GOP voter on the Presidential ticket.  I was even an alternate delegate to the National GOP Convention a few years ago.  It’s hard enough for me to vote for McCain (given McCain-Feingold and a host of other reasons).  If McCain picks Huckabee as his running mate, I will stay home.  Judging from the comments above, so will a large number of my conservative friends.  McCain would have to be tone deaf to think that his conservative doubters would be pleased with such a selection.  I don’t think he’s that foolish, but if he is, it’s better to learn that upfront.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  06:47 PM

I will not vote for anyone who does not believe in evolution.

Science is not a partisan political issue.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  07:06 PM

Of the 5 top Republicans in the primaries this year, Huckabee was the only one that would make me vote 3rd party.  A Democrat who’s hot for Jesus is still a Democrat.  National Sales Tax? Gimme a fargin break.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  07:09 PM

There is very little in this world that could keep me from voting GOP in a Presidential Election.  Huckabee is one.  I don’t like McCain, but will hold my nose and pull the lever as long as Huckabee (or Lindsey Graham) is NOT on the ticket.

Romney, Rudy, Thompson - those are men who’ve actually accomplished things.  Huckabee is a better match for Obama.  Terrific speakers when they stay on script, no genuine beliefs, willing to say or do anything for power.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  07:45 PM

Worst. Idea. Ever.
[url="http://www.hopenope.com" ]http://www.hopenope.com/little-hope.jpg
Nope.[/url]

Posted by Jeff Mitchell  on  07/16  at  07:45 PM

The Evangelical stranglehold on the Republican Party desperately needs to go by the wayside. If McCain picks Huckabee for his running mate, I’ll probably vote third party, but if they win, I’ll do anything I can to make sure that McCain lives through his first term.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  08:40 PM

No! No! Nooooooooooo! (gag, gasp)
IOW, head-in-the-oven level unenthused.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  08:49 PM

Why not Fred Berry, aka Rerun?

became a baptist minster, lost over a hundred pounds…

it’s at least 2/3 of Huckabee’s resume and the African-American angle would be a plus.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  10:13 PM

Could somebody please go bring 2016, two-term governor Bobby Jindal back in a time machine?

Posted by  on  07/16  at  10:28 PM

I’m sorry, “Cover Me, Porkins,” we would love help, but President Obama had Governor Jindal shot for sedition in 2015, after he outlawed the GOP and Jindal resurrected the Bull Moose party to run against him.  Once he got the filibuster-proof Senate in 2010 and the 5th liberal vote on the Supreme Court in 2011, there was nothing to stop him.  The great war started in 2014 after the laws prohibiting private ownership of firearms.  It took 23 years to establish an uncontested federal government again.  Sorry for the bad news.

Posted by  on  07/16  at  10:50 PM

http://sendables.jibjab.com/sendables/1191/time_for_some_campaignin#/recipient/OAvW121adepvgQcN

Huckabee or Romney?  I need some wine selections from Professor Bainbridge pronto.

Posted by  on  07/17  at  12:22 AM

Actually, there’s a devout evangelical Christian up north who’d make quite a running mate, despite relative inexperience (hell, who’s going to play the inexperience card, Obama?).  Qualities include:

1) As mentioned, evangelical Christian (without the Bible-thumpiness of Huckabee);
2) Just welcomed fourth child into the world;
3) More credibility on oil and energy policy than all other candidates of either party put together;
4) A known reformer with a history of cleaning up corruption regardless of party;
5) Been hunting and fishing since childhood, and is a life member of the NRA;
6) Young, VERY telegenic former news anchor;
7) Wildly popular in home state (McCain won’t need help in this particular state, but that appeal will translate to other, swing states).

Of course, this particular running mate may well lure more than a few disaffected Hillary voters, as she happens to be a woman. Step up to the podium, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. Looking forward to calling you Madame Vice President.

Posted by  on  07/17  at  01:09 AM

Throw evangelicals a bone, because nobody will notice Huckabee in the lowly VP slot?  What planet is Sean broadcasting from?  The press and the Dems would take attention and scrutiny to a whole new level, and you’d lose as much of the Republican base as you’d gain.  If Sean thinks that evangelicals “typically don’t get the credit they deserve” it’s probably because they’ve been vastly inflating their own importance without any help, ever since they first leapt at the chance to claim Bush I lost to Clinton because he failed to court the Christian Right. 

Here’s a response to Huckabee straight from the mouth of a non-political independent acquaintance of mine:  “Isn’t he the guy who wants to rewrite the Constitution so it conforms to the Bible?” The entertainment factor got Huckabee a pass from the press during the primaries which won’t be forthcoming in the actual election.

Posted by  on  07/17  at  02:58 AM

Count me as Yet Another Evangelical Adamantly Opposed to Huckabee.  YAEAOH!!!

Honestly, I could probably still vote for McCain if he picked Lieberman as a running mate, but Huckabee?  No way…

Posted by  on  07/17  at  05:37 AM

Huckabee is only a social conservative.  He provides no expertise in any area.  He turns off many voters with his high negatives. Does ANYONE think that he is ready to be President of the United States?  Romney is clearly the better campaigner and he brings some financial/business credibility PLUS, probably, Michigan with him if he is the VP.

Posted by  on  07/17  at  07:25 AM

The earlier “Joe” is not me, but I echo most of his sentiments.  Maybe not voting third party (I fear Obama more than Huckabee) but I see how others would.  I fear Huckabee far more than I fear Romney.  Romney is more of a tool, but he is earnest enought and does get economic issues.  Huckabee is all about “feelings.” Plus Romney does complement Mac in a weird but effective way. 

Hey, I hope Mac picks Palin, but short of that I would hope he picks Romney over Huckabee.

Posted by  on  07/17  at  09:21 AM

Add me to the chorus of anyone-but-Huckabee comments.  I personally can’t stand McCain, but at least he has some credibilty in foreign policy - he’s better than Obama, so I could hold my nose and vote for him.  Huckabee, on the other hand, should have run on the Bull Moose ticket - he’s a socially conservative, progressive politician: all government, all the time.  Being VP would make him the heir apparent as Republican nominee for President in 2012 or 2016.  If McCain taps Huckabee, I’ll either stay home or vote for Bob Barr.  It would be interesting to see Sarah Palin or Marsha Blackburn.  Romney would be more-or-less OK.  Kasich would be an inspired choice - has the economic literacy McCain so desperately needs, and might solidify Ohio.

Posted by  on  07/17  at  10:22 AM

I see a mass turnout of the Huck Haters trying to squelch this idea before it gets any traction.

That worked out real well last time. Instead of Thompson/Huckabee, we’ve got McCain. Of course for some of the Huck Haters, that might be a plus. For the vast majority of the R party its not.

The problem with Huckabee as VP is that its not enough. Its going to take a lot more than this to make up for several decades of spitting in the face.

And the Libertarians also don’t like McCain, and this is not going to make them any happier (of course, it can’t make them any unhappier.)

If Huckabee is willing to sign on as XO of this sinking ship, the good ship RINO, then thats a start. Add some more promises with specific names attached about judges. And several other gifts such as actual physical movement on a secure border. Then toss the Libertarians some major gift like medical marijuana (just one because they’re a lot smaller, but ‘major’ because they hate McCain, and frankly at this point you need every vote you can scrape out of an overpriced barrel of oil).

Who am I kidding? Its not going to happen. Hello President Obama.

Posted by  on  07/17  at  10:32 PM
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